CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2020-12-07T20:49:51Z
## Message ID: 20201207-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201207-AL-001).  Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2020-12-10T09:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2020-12-09T05:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).
   

Updated O-type CME parameters are:

Start time of the event: 2020-12-07T16:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~1383 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 12/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001) is associated with a C7.4 flare with ID 2020-12-07T15:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The source of this CME and associated flare is active region 12790.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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